A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19.

Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions1, with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2. In April 2020, an influential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations ('claims') detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms 'physical distancing' and 'social distancing'. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.

The psychology and policy of overcoming economic inequality.

Recent arguments claim that behavioral science has focused - to its detriment - on the individual over the system when construing behavioral interventions. In this commentary, we argue that tackling economic inequality using both framings in tandem is invaluable. By studying individuals who have overcome inequality, "positive deviants," and the system limitations they navigate, we offer potentially greater policy solutions.

The persistence of cognitive biases in financial decisions across economic groups.

While economic inequality continues to rise within countries, efforts to address it have been largely ineffective, particularly those involving behavioral approaches. It is often implied but not tested that choice patterns among low-income individuals may be a factor impeding behavioral interventions aimed at improving upward economic mobility. To test this, we assessed rates of ten cognitive biases across nearly 5000 participants from 27 countries. Our analyses were primarily focused on 1458 individuals that were either low-income adults or individuals who grew up in disadvantaged households but had above-average financial well-being as adults, known as positive deviants. Using discrete and complex models, we find evidence of no differences within or between groups or countries. We therefore conclude that choices impeded by cognitive biases alone cannot explain why some individuals do not experience upward economic mobility. Policies must combine both behavioral and structural interventions to improve financial well-being across populations.

Role of Military Forces in the New York State Response to COVID-19.

Importance: Military forces in the State of New York, comprising the Army National Guard, Air National Guard, Naval Militia, and State Guard, with contributions from the Army Corps of Engineers, have made major contributions to the state response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Observations: Operation COVID-19 began on March 10, 2020, and will continue uninterrupted at least through June 2022, making it the longest and largest domestic mobilization in state history. More than 7000 service members served across 200 COVID-19 mission sites, administering more than 4 million vaccines, producing more than 35 million testing kits, delivering more than 54 million meals, and administering more than 1.5 million tests. Conclusions and Relevance: Because of the role of states in delivering relief, testing, care, vaccination, and other community support during the COVID-19 pandemic, this article illuminates the role of New York military forces in responding to COVID-19. The aim is to provide details for the public health community, as well as to share lessons for the continued mission and future pandemic responses.

Short-sighted decision-making by those not vaccinated against COVID-19.

Widespread vaccination is necessary to minimize or halt the effects of many infectious diseases, including COVID-19. Stagnating vaccine uptake can prolong pandemics, raising the question of how we might predict, prevent, and correct vaccine hesitancy and unwillingness. In a multinational sample (N = 4,452) recruited from 13 countries that varied in pandemic severity and vaccine uptake (July 2021), we examined whether short-sighted decision-making as exemplified by steep delay discounting-choosing smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards-predicts COVID-19 vaccination status. Delay discounting was steeper in unvaccinated individuals and predicted vaccination status over and above demographics or mental health. The results suggest that delay discounting, a personal characteristic known to be modifiable through cognitive interventions, is a contributing cause of differences in vaccine compliance.

The globalizability of temporal discounting.

Economic inequality is associated with preferences for smaller, immediate gains over larger, delayed ones. Such temporal discounting may feed into rising global inequality, yet it is unclear whether it is a function of choice preferences or norms, or rather the absence of sufficient resources for immediate needs. It is also not clear whether these reflect true differences in choice patterns between income groups. We tested temporal discounting and five intertemporal choice anomalies using local currencies and value standards in 61 countries (N = 13,629). Across a diverse sample, we found consistent, robust rates of choice anomalies. Lower-income groups were not significantly different, but economic inequality and broader financial circumstances were clearly correlated with population choice patterns.

Predictors of adherence to public health behaviors for fighting COVID-19 derived from longitudinal data.

The present paper examines longitudinally how subjective perceptions about COVID-19, one's community, and the government predict adherence to public health measures to reduce the spread of the virus. Using an international survey (N = 3040), we test how infection risk perception, trust in the governmental response and communications about COVID-19, conspiracy beliefs, social norms on distancing, tightness of culture, and community punishment predict various containment-related attitudes and behavior. Autoregressive analyses indicate that, at the personal level, personal hygiene behavior was predicted by personal infection risk perception. At social level, social distancing behaviors such as abstaining from face-to-face contact were predicted by perceived social norms. Support for behavioral mandates was predicted by confidence in the government and cultural tightness, whereas support for anti-lockdown protests was predicted by (lower) perceived clarity of communication about the virus. Results are discussed in light of policy implications and creating effective interventions.

Unstandard Deviation: The Untapped Value of Positive Deviance for Reducing Inequalities.

Behavioral science is increasingly used in public policy to understand and address various manifestations of inequalities. Yet evidence from effective population-level interventions is limited. One framework, known as positive deviance, emphasizes individuals from disadvantaged circumstances who have significantly better outcomes than are typical for their group. Studying their behaviors and outcomes helps to understand what might explain their overall success. These insights could also be used to help others from these circumstances experience positive outcomes. Because positive deviance has been markedly understudied, we present a framework for doing so specifically within behavioral science for public policies aimed at reducing inequalities. Using examples from real-world and experimental insights on choices and outcomes of positive deviants, we encourage further study of their choices and trajectories over time to produce valuable insights. We propose that leveraging those findings would inform public policy by introducing interventions that are more ecologically sound and population-relevant and thus have a better chance at benefiting those who start off under adverse circumstances.

The general fault in our fault lines.

Pervading global narratives suggest that political polarization is increasing, yet the accuracy of such group meta-perceptions has been drawn into question. A recent US study suggests that these beliefs are inaccurate and drive polarized beliefs about out-groups. However, it also found that informing people of inaccuracies reduces those negative beliefs. In this work, we explore whether these results generalize to other countries. To achieve this, we replicate two of the original experiments with 10,207 participants across 26 countries. We focus on local group divisions, which we refer to as fault lines. We find broad generalizability for both inaccurate meta-perceptions and reduced negative motive attribution through a simple disclosure intervention. We conclude that inaccurate and negative group meta-perceptions are exhibited in myriad contexts and that informing individuals of their misperceptions can yield positive benefits for intergroup relations. Such generalizability highlights a robust phenomenon with implications for political discourse worldwide.

Global mental health: an improved measure of well-being in multiple languages.

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of international organisations and national governments have committed to well-being promotion. Unfortunately, important questions regarding how to assess well-being are still unresolved, making policy implementation and evaluation difficult. METHODS: This research expanded on Huppert and So's (Soc Indic Res. 110, 837-861 2013) multidimensional subjective well-being framework by investigating the replicability of the model in two non-European regions (South America, represented by Brazil and Colombia, and Eastern Africa, represented by Uganda), and the United Kingdom. Additionally, previous limitations of the framework were also addressed. ESS Round Six items were crucially improved in terms of temporal and response scale consistency. Bayesian approximate measurement invariance was applied on a sample of 381 young adult participants to test for consistency across countries. RESULTS: The Huppert & So (Soc Indic Res. 110, 837-861 2013) model was found to fairly replicate across non-European regions, where meaningful differences in well-being patterns across regions were observed. Additionally, estimated well-being was related with other well-being measures (Five Ways): Learn and Connect were the strongest predictors of general well-being, with Take Notice and Give being associated with specific aspects of it. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this narrow sample of young adults, it appears the ten-item measure proposed by Huppert & So (Soc Indic Res. 110, 837-861 2013) is useful for assessing population mental health outside of Europe. This is only an initial attempt to assess qualities, so further testing should be done before applying at scale for identifying policy opportunities to address well-being of populations.

Well-being is more than happiness and life satisfaction: a multidimensional analysis of 21 countries.

BACKGROUND: Recent trends on measurement of well-being have elevated the scientific standards and rigor associated with approaches for national and international comparisons of well-being. One major theme in this has been the shift toward multidimensional approaches over reliance on traditional metrics such as single measures (e.g. happiness, life satisfaction) or economic proxies (e.g. GDP). METHODS: To produce a cohesive, multidimensional measure of well-being useful for providing meaningful insights for policy, we use data from 2006 and 2012 from the European Social Survey (ESS) to analyze well-being for 21 countries, involving approximately 40,000 individuals for each year. We refer collectively to the items used in the survey as multidimensional psychological well-being (MPWB). RESULTS: The ten dimensions assessed are used to compute a single value standardized to the population, which supports broad assessment and comparison. It also increases the possibility of exploring individual dimensions of well-being useful for targeting interventions. Insights demonstrate what may be masked when limiting to single dimensions, which can create a failure to identify levers for policy interventions. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that both the composite score and individual dimensions from this approach constitute valuable levels of analyses for exploring appropriate policies to protect and improve well-being.

Replicating patterns of prospect theory for decision under risk.

Prospect theory is among the most influential frameworks in behavioural science, specifically in research on decision-making under risk. Kahneman and Tversky's 1979 study tested financial choices under risk, concluding that such judgements deviate significantly from the assumptions of expected utility theory, which had remarkable impacts on science, policy and industry. Though substantial evidence supports prospect theory, many presumed canonical theories have drawn scrutiny for recent replication failures. In response, we directly test the original methods in a multinational study (n = 4,098 participants, 19 countries, 13 languages), adjusting only for current and local currencies while requiring all participants to respond to all items. The results replicated for 94% of items, with some attenuation. Twelve of 13 theoretical contrasts replicated, with 100% replication in some countries. Heterogeneity between countries and intra-individual variation highlight meaningful avenues for future theorizing and applications. We conclude that the empirical foundations for prospect theory replicate beyond any reasonable thresholds.

Nudging New York: adaptive models and the limits of behavioral interventions to reduce no-shows and health inequalities.

BACKGROUND: Missed healthcare appointments (no-shows) are costly and operationally inefficient for health systems. No-show rates are particularly high for vulnerable populations, even though these populations often require additional care. Few studies on no-show behavior or potential interventions exist specifically for Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs), which care for over 24 million disadvantaged individuals in the United States. The purpose of this study is to identify predictors of no-show behavior and to analyze the effects of a reminder intervention in urban FQHCs in order to design effective policy solutions to a protracted issue in healthcare. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational study using electronic medical record data from 11 facilities belonging to a New York City-based FQHC network between June 2017 to April 2018. This data includes 53,149 visits for 41,495 unique patients. Seven hierarchical generalized linear models and generalized additive models were used to predict no-shows, and multiple regression models evaluated the effectiveness of a reminder. All analyses were conducted in R. RESULTS: The strongest predictor of no-show rates in FQHCs is whether or not patients are assigned to empaneled providers (z = - 91.45, p < 10- 10), followed by lead time for appointments (z = 23.87, p < 10- 10). These effects were fairly stable across facilities. The reminder had minimal effects on no-show rates overall (No show rate before: 41.6%, after: 42.1%). For individuals with appointments before and after the reminder, there was a small decrease in no-shows of 2%. CONCLUSIONS: The limited effects of the reminder intervention suggest the need for more personalized behavioral interventions to reduce no-shows. We recommend that these begin with increasing the use of empaneled providers for preventive care appointments and reducing the lag time between setting the appointment and the actual date of the appointment, at least for individuals with a high rate of no-show. By complementing these with low-intensity, low-cost behavioral interventions, we would expect greater impacts for improved access to care, contributing to the well-being of vulnerable populations.

Depressive Symptoms and Sexually Transmitted Disease: Evidence from a Low-Income Neighborhood of New York City.

We examined the association between sexually transmitted disease (STD) and depressive symptoms. Our analysis utilized the 2015 cross-sectional Washington Heights Community Survey. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was used to examine the primary association between having a history of STD and patient health questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) score while adjusting for potential confounders. Then in separate models, we adjusted for the interaction of social factors with PHQ-9 score to test for modification effect on the primary association. In this low-income neighborhood, STD history was not significantly associated with PHQ-9 score in the overall logistic regression model for the primary association. However, in interaction models, STD and depressive symptoms were associated in sub-groups defined by social factors, namely being Hispanic [odds ratio (OR) 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.15], foreign-born (OR 1.08; 95% CI 1.02-1.15), and having low to moderate social support (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.02-1.15). Our results demonstrate a need for targeted interventions to be applied to vulnerable subgroups identified.

Health Promotion at Work: A Comparison of Policy and Practice Across Europe.

BACKGROUND: Promoting healthy lifestyles at work should complement workplace safety programs. This study systematically investigates current states of occupational health and safety (OHS) policy as well as practice in the European Union (EU). METHODS: OHS policies of EU member states were categorized as either prevention or health promotion provisions using a manifest content analysis. Policy rankings were then created for each prevention and promotion. Rankings compared eight indicators from the European Survey of Enterprises on New and Emerging Risks-2 data on prevention and promotion practices for each member state using Chi-square and probit regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 73.1% of EU establishments take preventive measures against direct physical harm, and about 35.4% take measures to prevent psychosocial risks. Merely 29.5% have measures to promote health. Weak and inconsistent links between OHS policy and practice indicators were identified. CONCLUSION: National OHS policies evidently concentrate on prevention while compliance with health and safety practices is relatively low. Psychosocial risks are often addressed in national policy but not implemented by institutions. Current risk assessment methods are outdated and often lack psychosocial indicators. Health promotion at work is rare in policy and practice, and its interpretation remains preventive. Member states need to adopt policies that actively improve health and well-being at the workplace.

Getting closer? Differences remain in neuropsychological assessments converted to mobile devices.

Dementia is an increasing concern in today's aging society. Despite the limited evidence for dementia screening at a population level, a push to improve diagnosis and the expansion of technology usage within health-care settings has led to the rising popularity of computerized neuropsychological assessment devices (CNADs). Some CNADs are completely new tests, others are direct translations of traditional pen-and-paper cognitive functioning tests. This study is an investigation of the equivalence between two existing pen-and-paper tests and their translated versions on mobile platforms. In this small-scale study (N = 42), the scores on two multidomain assessments-Saint Louis University Mental State Examination (SLUMS; Feliciano et al., 2013) and Cambridge University Pen to Digital Equivalence assessment (CUPDE; Ruggeri, Maguire, Andrews, Martin, & Menon, 2016)-were significantly different, even with multiple design iterations, when participants were matched by age and score on an independent screening tool, the Self-Administered Gerocognitive Exam (SAGE), t(13) = 2.55, p < .05, d = .680. There was no relationship between the Color Trails Task (CTT; D'Elia, Satz, Uchiyama, & White, 1996; Maj et al., 1993) and its mobile translation, the electronic CTT (eCTT), ρ = -.144, n = 21, p = .533. Though no difference was identified between the eCTT and the modified pen-and-paper CTT (pCTT) scores, t(13) = .092, p = .928, there was no relationship between eCTT and pCTT, r = .139, n = 14, p = .635. Outcome scores of mobile-based assessments appear to remain distinct from the established norms of traditional assessments, adding to existing concerns associated with population-screening programs via mobile applications. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

An evidence-based policy for improving choice in global health access through medical travel.

Global medical travel has had an increasing trend without a comprehensive, evidence-driven policy to ensure safe and effective practice. To identify key factors that influence medical travel, we conducted a series of studies culminating with a preference and decision-making component of over 500 prospective medical travelers from a number of countries. Results indicated that quality of care was the most critical factor in the decision, followed by lower costs of procedure and shorter waiting times. Lower costs were less of a factor if the procedure was more invasive, which also increased the importance of waiting time in the decision. The most desired destinations for care were in Europe (United Kingdom, Germany) and North America (United States). Building on these insights and previous literature, we present a model that implements applications from these factors and additional insights generated across the series of studies toward an effective policy framework.

The use of single armed observational data to closing the gap in otherwise disconnected evidence networks: a network meta-analysis in multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Network meta-analysis (NMA) allows for the estimation of comparative effectiveness of treatments that have not been studied in head-to-head trials; however, relative treatment effects for all interventions can only be derived where available evidence forms a connected network. Head-to-head evidence is limited in many disease areas, regularly resulting in disconnected evidence structures where a large number of treatments are available. This is also the case in the evidence of treatments for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. METHODS: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) identified in a systematic literature review form two disconnected evidence networks. Standard Bayesian NMA models are fitted to obtain estimates of relative effects within each network. Observational evidence was identified to fill the evidence gap. Single armed trials are matched to act as each other's control group based on a distance metric derived from covariate information. Uncertainty resulting from including this evidence is incorporated by analysing the space of possible matches. RESULTS: Twenty five randomised controlled trials form two disconnected evidence networks; 12 single armed observational studies are considered for bridging between the networks. Five matches are selected to bridge between the networks. While significant variation in the ranking is observed, daratumumab in combination with dexamethasone and either lenalidomide or bortezomib, as well as triple therapy of carfilzomib, ixazomib and elozumatab, in combination with lenalidomide and dexamethasone, show the highest effects on progression free survival, on average. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis shows how observational data can be used to fill gaps in the existing networks of RCT evidence; allowing for the indirect comparison of a large number of treatments, which could not be compared otherwise. Additional uncertainty is accounted for by scenario analyses reducing the risk of over confidence in interpretation of results.